IRAN IN CHARGE – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:  Iran has now released the ten American sailors it seized yesterday, apparently after one of the Americans' two boats encountered mechanical problems.   The administration will hail the release as a sign of new cooperation with Iran.  But grown-ups see it differently.  From ace defense reporters Josh Rogin and Eli Lake, at Bloomberg, written before the release: 

Iran's seizure of two U.S. naval ships and President Barack Obama's response show that the country the president hoped would secure his foreign policy legacy now has the ability to hold it hostage.

Obama didn’t mention the incident in the Persian Gulf during his State of the Union speech because, according to administration officials, the U.S. does not consider the boarding of the ships and the seizure of 10 U.S. sailors to be a "hostile act." Instead, the president praised the diplomatic agreement on Iran's nukes.

Not a hostile act?  And I guess those planes over Pearl Harbor in 1941 were flown by lost tourists.

“As we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program, shipped out its uranium stockpile, and the world has avoided another war,” he said.

Even if Iran quickly releases the 10 U.S. military personnel it took custody of, as senior Obama administration officials assured reporters Tuesday evening, the incident is a significant escalation in the Persian Gulf. It shows that despite a nuclear agreement with the West, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps is willing to board U.S. vessels, take American soldiers into custody, and, according to CNN citing U.S. officials, confiscate the crew's communications and GPS equipment.

Officials pointed to Secretary of State John Kerry’s call to Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif as evidence of an improved bilateral relationship. But there were several signs the administration and the Iranian government were not working well together. As the Iranian state press reported the sailors had been “arrested” for “snooping,” a senior Obama administration official gave reporters conflicting information, saying the boats had malfunctioned and the sailors would be released “promptly.” It took several hours before the captured sailors were allowed to make contact with their superiors.

The incident is just latest in a series of Iranian provocations since agreeing to the nuclear deal in July. In late December, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels fired unguided missiles near the USS Truman; the U.S. did not retaliate. Also last month, Kerry wrote to the Iranian government to assure it the U.S. government would waive new visa restrictions passed by Congress, after Tehran objected. The U.S. indefinitely delayed imposing sanctions on Iran in response to its tests of ballistic missiles in violation of United Nations sanctions.

“This administration is going to remain hostage from now until they leave office to the games the Iranians play and to Iranian behavior that falls outside the four corners of the agreement,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator now at the Wilson Center.

COMMENT:  Iran knows it can play Obama like a violin because our president will do nothing to disrupt the nuclear agreement.  We're now into the "legacy" game, not the leadership game.

But don't despair.  Just wait for the end-of-term media wrapups of Obama's presidency, when we'll be told that he's ready for Mount Rushmore.  I can just hear those words from Chris Matthews. 

January 13, 2016